# Polymarket Dota 2 Analysis Reveals Active Traders Outperformed Event Holders
A recent account-level study by Predictbook examining Polymarket activity around Dota 2’s International championship has revealed that active contract traders significantly outperformed those who simply backed outcomes and held positions to settlement. The August tournament in Shanghai attracted substantial prediction market activity, with researchers analyzing over 620,000 trades across nearly 22,000 accounts.
The analysis found that approximately 5,000 accounts generating returns through active trading collectively profited around $7.6 million, while the remaining 17,000 accounts—representing 77 percent of participants—primarily held positions to settlement and lost roughly the same aggregate amount. This suggests prediction markets increasingly function as trading venues rather than pure forecasting platforms.
Account performance showed extreme variance despite the headline figures. Median profits stood at just $4.84 for winning accounts, while median losses reached $23.15. Only 734 accounts exceeded $1,000 in gains. Capital concentration proved equally stark, with the top ten percent of participants providing nearly 98 percent of the $182 million deposited into tournament-related markets.
For regulated brokers and fintech firms, this pattern raises important questions about prediction market categorization. When contract trading dominates over outcome speculation, platforms may increasingly resemble derivatives exchanges rather than betting venues—potentially triggering different licensing requirements across jurisdictions. Compliance teams should monitor how regulators classify these hybrid products as the sector matures.
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FXnCO Insight
** Prediction markets attracting sophisticated traders rather than casual bettors may accelerate regulatory scrutiny and licensing requirements similar to those applied to traditional derivatives platforms.
Source: Finance Magnates