Prediction market Polymarket may be inadvertently broadcasting suspected insider trading signals that automated bots and large traders can copy, according to research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective. The nonprofit identified 556 wallets exhibiting suspicious “long-shot” betting patterns, including 152 that specialized in military and defense markets with a collective 97.2% win rate and $8 million in profits.
These accounts, dubbed “Orcas,” typically opened positions quickly in niche markets where insider information could provide an edge, then cashed out and vanished. While luck remains a possible explanation, ACDC found evidence that these suspicious bets triggered copycat trading from bots and whales. In one instance, an Orca bet on US strikes against Iran hours before the June 2025 action was followed by $300,000 in copycat wagers.
The blockchain-based platform makes all trades publicly visible while maintaining trader anonymity, creating what researchers call an observable information leak. Polymarket says it monitors suspicious activity and cooperates with authorities.
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FXnCO Insight
** Traders monitoring blockchain-based prediction markets should watch for sudden large bets on low-probability outcomes in defense-related contracts as potential advance signals of geopolitical events.
Source: Finance Magnates