# Natural Gas Markets Face Extended Supply Pressures Through 2026
Rabobank has upgraded its price forecasts for natural gas benchmarks TTF and JKM for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, signaling that traders should prepare for sustained elevated prices well beyond the current winter season. The Dutch bank points to fundamental supply constraints in the liquefied natural gas market as the primary driver, compounded by significant disruptions to Qatari exports stemming from fresh tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatar represents roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, making any prolonged disruption through this critical shipping chokepoint a major concern for energy markets worldwide. The Strait of Hormuz remains a persistent geopolitical flashpoint, and extended closures or interference could tighten already constrained gas availability across Europe and Asia.
For traders, this revision matters across multiple asset classes. Natural gas futures on both European and Asian benchmarks will likely experience increased volatility and upward pressure. Currency markets may see the euro and British pound weaken if European energy costs surge, while energy-exporting currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar could strengthen. Equity markets with heavy energy sector exposure may benefit, though broader indices could face headwinds from inflation concerns. Gold often attracts haven flows during geopolitical uncertainty, particularly when Middle Eastern tensions escalate.
FXnCO Insight
Monitor EUR crosses and natural gas CFDs closely through late 2026, as sustained supply tightness creates both directional opportunities and heightened volatility risk across energy and European currency pairs.
Source: FXStreet