Rabobank maintains its Brent crude price forecasts despite emerging concerns in refined products markets, according to strategists Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit. The bank projects Brent will trade at $80 per barrel in Q3 2026 and $78 per barrel in Q4 2026, keeping its outlook essentially flat from previous estimates. The forecast suggests underlying resilience in crude fundamentals even as refined products face headwinds. The divergence between crude oil stability and refined products vulnerability points to potential margin compression for refiners in the coming quarters. Traders should monitor this disconnect closely as it could signal shifting dynamics in global energy demand patterns and refining capacity utilization. The stable crude outlook amid refined products weakness may also reflect expectations of balanced supply-demand fundamentals in the upstream sector while downstream markets face oversupply or demand concerns.
FXnCO Insight
Energy traders should prepare for potential volatility in crack spreads as the crude-refined products disconnect widens, creating opportunities in refined product shorts or refining margin plays through 2026.
Source: FXStreet