Kalshi has crossed $10 billion in weekly notional volume for the first time during the FIFA World Cup, but user behavior data reveals prediction markets are functioning less like crypto onramps and more like standalone platforms. A Bitget Wallet study tracking 857,000 Polymarket users over 90 days found 60% had zero prior onchain trading history, with users averaging 1,194 prediction market interactions versus just 12 decentralized exchange trades during that period.
The World Cup catalyzed massive growth, with Kalshi processing $2.9 billion in tournament trades within eleven days and Polymarket exceeding $5 billion in football markets. Revenue is following volume, with Kalshi reaching $2 billion annualized and Polymarket surpassing $1 billion just six weeks after US launch. Coinbase confirms this pattern, noting only 1% of prediction market users treat it like traditional asset trading, while 99% engage as an alternative to media or entertainment.
FXnCO Insight
Prediction markets are creating revenue streams independent of crypto market cycles, driven by real-world events that attract non-trading audiences with resilience during digital asset downturns.
Source: Finance Magnates