Noble Securities analyst Mateusz Chrzanowski has sharply increased his 2026 profit forecast for Warsaw-listed broker XTB to PLN 1.5 billion, up 50% from his January estimate of PLN 1 billion. The revision follows three consecutive quarterly forecasts that significantly overshot actual results. Chrzanowski’s Q3 2025 estimate missed by 257%, predicting PLN 190 million against XTB’s reported PLN 53.2 million. His Q4 and Q1 2026 calls were closer but still high, overstating first quarter earnings by PLN 115 million.
The analyst warned Polish newspaper Parkiet that XTB’s current share price already reflects many positive scenarios, suggesting limited upside despite the bullish outlook. While client acquisition forecasts have proven more accurate, quarterly profit remains difficult to predict due to volatile profitability per CFD lot, which swung from PLN 152 in Q3 2025 to PLN 439 in Q1 2026.
FXnCO Insight
Traders should treat Noble’s aggressive XTB profit targets with caution given the analyst’s consistent overestimation track record and his own valuation warning.
Source: Finance Magnates