The Thai baht has stabilized despite disappointing May export figures, with year-on-year growth slowing sharply to 10.6% from April’s 23.1%, according to Commerzbank analysis. The miss against consensus expectations reflects weakness in agricultural shipments, though electronics exports continue showing resilience. Thailand’s government now projects export growth will moderate to 8% in 2026 as front-loading effects from tariff concerns dissipate.
Despite the export slowdown, the baht has found support from sustained capital inflows, preventing the currency from weakening significantly on the trade data disappointment. The divergence between softer trade performance and currency stability suggests investors remain confident in Thailand’s broader economic fundamentals, with inflows offsetting export headwinds. The electronics sector’s continued strength provides some cushion, though agricultural weakness highlights vulnerability in key traditional export categories.
FXnCO Insight
Traders should monitor baht positioning closely as the disconnect between weakening export momentum and currency stability may not hold if June data confirms the slowing trend or capital inflows reverse.
Source: FXStreet