The Polish zloty is under pressure as the National Bank of Poland’s slow pivot toward a hawkish stance fails to support the currency, according to Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose. Polish headline and core inflation have both re-accelerated, with seasonally adjusted monthly rates now running clearly above the central bank’s target range. This development has rendered previous signals from NBP Governor Adam Glapinski about potential rate cuts obsolete, creating policy uncertainty in the market.
The renewed inflationary pressure should theoretically support a stronger zloty through expectations of tighter monetary policy, but the NBP’s hesitant response is undermining currency strength. Traders and investors are now watching closely for more decisive action from the central bank to address the inflation overshoot. The delayed hawkish shift suggests the NBP may be behind the curve, raising concerns about Poland’s ability to contain price pressures without more aggressive rate adjustments.
FXnCO Insight
Currency traders should remain cautious on zloty exposure until the NBP signals concrete policy tightening measures to match the accelerating inflation trajectory.
Source: FXStreet