Commerzbank has revised its near-term EUR/PLN forecast upward to 4.30 from 4.20, signaling expected weakness in the Polish zloty against the euro. The adjustment, announced by analyst Tatha Ghose, comes in response to heightened global risk aversion and ongoing volatility stemming from oil price shocks affecting emerging market currencies.
The revised forecast suggests the zloty will face continued pressure as traders flee to safe-haven assets amid uncertain market conditions. Poland’s currency has become increasingly vulnerable to external shocks, with energy price fluctuations presenting particular challenges for the Central European economy. The higher EUR/PLN projection indicates the bank expects approximately 2.4 percent additional depreciation from the previous target.
Market participants trading zloty pairs should prepare for increased volatility, while businesses with Polish exposure may face rising hedging costs. The adjustment reflects broader emerging market currency weakness as risk sentiment deteriorates across global markets.
FXnCO Insight
Traders should monitor EUR/PLN closely around the 4.30 level for potential resistance, while considering protective stops on long zloty positions amid deteriorating risk appetite.
Source: FXStreet