The National Bank of Poland looks set to hold its main policy rate steady at 3.75% at its 2 June meeting following a surprise downside miss in May’s inflation data, according to ING economist Adam Antoniak. The cooling consumer price index remains within the central bank’s target band, removing immediate pressure for rate adjustments and supporting an extended pause in monetary policy shifts.
This steady stance affects zloty traders and Polish fixed income markets, as expectations for rate changes have been a key driver of currency volatility in recent months. The hold signal suggests the NBP views current inflation trends as manageable without further intervention, providing clarity for those positioning in Polish assets. With inflation pressures easing rather than accelerating, the central bank appears comfortable maintaining its wait-and-see approach through the summer months.
FXnCO Insight
Traders should anticipate reduced zloty volatility around the 2 June NBP meeting, with carry trade strategies in PLN-denominated assets remaining viable under the extended rate hold scenario.
Source: FXStreet