Rabobank has sharply increased its natural gas price forecasts for the second half of 2026, warning that structurally tight LNG markets and escalating geopolitical risks are driving winter supply concerns. The bank now expects significantly higher prices for both TTF European gas and Asian JKM benchmarks during Q3 and Q4 2026, following renewed disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that have deepened export losses from Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG suppliers.
The revised outlook reflects mounting anxiety over global gas availability as winter demand approaches, with the Hormuz chokepoint disruption threatening critical supply routes to European and Asian markets. Traders should anticipate continued volatility in gas futures as the geopolitical situation remains fluid and inventory concerns intensify heading into peak heating season.
FXnCO Insight
Gas-dependent European currencies and energy-heavy equity indices face downside pressure if supply tightness persists, while long natural gas positions warrant close monitoring as geopolitical risk premiums expand through year-end 2026.
Source: FXStreet