The European Commission has opened a critical consultation on whether blockchain-based prediction markets should fall under the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation or the stricter MiFID II framework, with the deadline recently extended to September 30, 2026. This consultation will directly shape the Commission’s mandated report to Parliament due June 2027, which may include new legislation governing the sector for the next decade.
The regulatory choice is make-or-break for the industry. Under MiCA, prediction market operators could obtain crypto-asset service provider licenses and operate across all European Economic Area states. Under MiFID II, they would face the same binary options ban that eliminated retail access to similar products in 2018. The European Securities and Markets Authority already signaled its position in July 2026, stating that event contracts meeting certain criteria qualify as financial instruments subject to existing retail distribution prohibitions.
Industry responses submitted by the September deadline will cement Europe’s regulatory approach to this rapidly growing sector.
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Prediction market platforms targeting European users should prepare compliance strategies for both regulatory scenarios before the September 30 consultation closes.
Source: Finance Magnates