Rabobank has revised its Brent crude price forecasts upward after assuming the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed for several additional months, with a potential reopening not expected until September. The prolonged closure of this critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passes, is forcing RaboResearch Global Economics and Markets to recalibrate its energy market projections. The extended blockage significantly tightens global oil supply routes, as tankers must navigate much longer alternative paths around Africa, adding substantial time and costs to deliveries.
The assumption of a months-long closure intensifies concerns about supply constraints and inventory draws across major consuming regions. Energy traders should prepare for sustained volatility in crude markets as the extended Hormuz disruption compounds existing geopolitical tensions. Oil-dependent sectors including shipping, airlines, and petrochemicals face mounting cost pressures that could ripple through broader financial markets.
FXnCO Insight
Position for elevated Brent price levels through Q3 2025, with particular attention to supply-sensitive energy equities and inflation-linked instruments as extended Hormuz closure risks materialize.
Source: FXStreet