Chinese unwrought aluminium and product exports surged in May 2024 to their highest level since November, driven by increased overseas demand following disruptions in the Middle East supply chain. ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report the export spike coincides with a notable rise in speculative long positions in the aluminium market. The Middle East disruptions have created supply gaps that Chinese producers are actively filling, redirecting material to international markets. This export acceleration comes as global aluminium consumers scramble to secure alternative sources amid geopolitical uncertainty affecting traditional supply routes. Traders should monitor whether this trend persists as it could pressure domestic Chinese aluminium availability while supporting international prices. The combination of surging exports and growing speculative interest suggests market participants are positioning for continued tightness in non-Chinese supply channels.
FXnCO Insight
Watch for potential upside in aluminium prices as Chinese export strength and rising speculative longs signal expectations of sustained supply constraints outside China.
Source: FXStreet